The Michigan Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (MDARD) announced this week that Michigan had tallied a record $2.9 billion in agriculture-related exports in 2024. On Wednesday, MDARD Director Tim Boring sat down with news outlets from across the state, including the Leelanau Ticker, to discuss the unexpectedly strong 2024 numbers – and to answer questions about how exports and Michigan ag in general could be challenged by new foreign trade tariffs.

First, a recap: Last October, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) granted a request from Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer to issue a disaster declaration for Michigan’s cherry industry. The declaration applied to three primary counties – Antrim, Grand Traverse, and Leelanau – as well as eight contiguous counties, including Benzie, Crawford, Manistee, Otsego, Charlevoix, Kalkaska, Missaukee, and Wexford, and opened the door for cherry farmers in those areas to access low-interest emergency loans “to help cover part of their actual losses.” MDARD estimated that sweet cherry farmers in Michigan “lost upwards to 75 percent of their crops” in 2024 due to factors like heavy rain, high humidity, mold and disease pressure, and devastating pest activity.

Despite northern Michigan having one of its worst cherry seasons on record, Michigan agriculture had plenty of bright spots last year, according to MDARD’s latest report. Overall, ag-related exports were up more than $282 million from 2023. Processed food products represented the biggest market segment, tallying $636 million in exports in 2024 alone. Other top categories included “sugar beet, soybean, soybean residue, brewing waste, and animal feed,” at $393 million; dairy products, at $303 million; pasta, bread, and other starches, combining for $285 million; and wood products, at $252 million.

“This record-breaking success for our agriculture, food, and forestry companies proves Michigan ag brings high-quality products to the table that are in high demand domestically and internationally,” Boring said. “With so much uncertainty caused by new tariffs, these record numbers serve as an example of the economic prosperity we can foster with the right support and a level playing field.”

Those tariffs are perhaps the biggest question mark facing Michigan’s ag industry in 2025. Since taking office two months ago, President Donald Trump has launched an aggressive trade war against some of America’s most significant import/export partners. New policies include 10 percent tariffs on Canadian energy and oil, 25 percent tariffs on all other imports from Canada, 25 percent tariffs on all goods from Mexico, and a ramp-up in tariffs on Chinese goods, from 10 to 20 percent.

Most of the new tariffs went into effect on March 4, the same day Canada announced plans to implement 25 percent retaliatory tariffs on $155 billion worth of American goods. Phase one of those tariffs, which is now in place, affects some $30 billion in U.S. products, including beer, wine, coffee, peanut butter, orange juice, appliances, apparel, pulp and paper products, and cosmetics. If implemented, the next phase would represent a more direct hit for American farmers, adding tariffs on fruits, vegetables, beef, pork, and dairy.

China has also instituted retaliatory tariffs, including 15 percent on U.S. chicken, wheat, and corn and 10 percent on soybeans, pork, and fruit. Mexico is holding off on retaliatory tariffs until at least next month.

Boring has already issued warnings about how the Trump trade war could hurt Michigan’s agricultural producers. Some of that hurt will likely come from the export market, which relies heavily on countries affected by new tariffs.

“Canada is far and away our greatest trading partner; more than $1.25 billion of economic activity happens there,” Boring said. “Mexico is a huge trading partner, close to $500 million. And then a variety of countries across the Pacific – including South Korea, Japan, and China – are all major trading partners for us here in Michigan.”

Per Boring, MDARD doesn’t yet have any “specific projections” for how the new tariffs might impact Michigan’s ag-related export numbers for 2025. However, he said the department is “in daily communication” with federal officials, international colleagues, and Michigan farmers and ag businesses “to continue to best understand what some of these impacts might be.”

“We know that when tariffs were implemented during the Trump administration's first term, there were a lot of countries that specifically targeted agricultural products for retaliatory tariffs, and we've seen a lot of that messaging occurring in the last few weeks and months here as well,” Boring said. “So, we're highly attuned to the impacts, and we're going to continue to talk about what those specific impacts are for Michigan's ag economy and Michigan farms.”

The Leelanau Ticker’s big question for Boring? If tariffs do end up costing Michigan ag producers some of their export revenues in 2025, could the Trump trade war bring any reciprocal benefits for Michigan farmers, such as more American customers choosing to buy domestic?

“I think all too often that we don’t fully value the production of those crops in our own backyards,” Boring acknowledged. “There are a variety of different ways that we're continuing to work on having that value better recognized, and having it translate into increased economic returns for farms and ag businesses here in Michigan. Tariffs are one tool discussed in these sorts of situations, but they tend to be really blunt instruments, and they don't necessarily have the promotion effect that we might always want.”

Boring went on to blast the Trump tariffs for their “unpredictability,” and for “a lack of clear decisiveness about what the goals are.”

“That uncertainty continues to be a really stifling effect on innovation and investments moving forward,” Boring said. “So, while tariffs might be a tool employed…to continue to finesse and nuance our systems, doing so in a more certain and predictable way would aid Michigan farms and businesses in how we're building long-term success.”